Introduction. In the context of the post-crisis recovery of the Russian economy, digitalization, demographic decline, and geopolitical constraints, the employment system and labour market are undergoing profound transformation. The analysis of regional specificities of these processes is of particular importance, since it is at the level of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation that specific imbalances between labour supply and demand are formed.
Aim – to identify key trends in changes in employment in the Altai Territory from the perspective of forming a balanced regional labour market.
Methods. The study employs general scientific methods (systemic, comparative and retrospective analysis, generalization, content analysis) and statistical methods (timeseries analysis and methods of mathematical statistics). The empirical basis includes official statistical data for 2010–2024, regional statistical yearbooks, and the forecast of the labour resources balance up to 2027.
Results. It has been established that in 2010–2024 the population of the Altai Krai decreased by more than 12 %, while the labour force declined by almost 10 %, due to negative natural population growth and migration outflow. Pronounced structural shifts have been identified, including a reduction in employment in agriculture and certain segments of the public sector, alongside employment growth in construction, manufacturing, trade, information and communication activities, and the hospitality industry. A typology of economic activities has been developed based on employment dynamics and the required qualification level.
Scientific novelty. The novelty of the study lies in a comprehensive assessment of employment transformation based on the integration of demographic, migration, and sectoral indicators; in the development of a classification of economic activities according to the degree of labour demand and the qualification structure of labour needs; and in identifying the contradiction between the limited growth of labour resources and the projected increase in employment.
Practical significance. The findings may be used by regional authorities in shaping personnel and socio-economic policy, developing labour resource balance forecasts, and designing employment support programs.