Introduction. Forecasting and strategic planning of  long-term labor needs and the development of  secondary vocational education are regulated by  the legislation of the Russian Federation. The issues of applying modern forecasting methods require consideration in the context of the requirements of established norms. 

Aim. The coverage of the results of the analysis of normative and methodological documents, which define the issues of forecasting and strategic planning of the development of the education system of the Russian Federation. 

Methods. The methods of generalizing analysis of the content of normative documents, systematization of relevant legal information in the context of forecasting and strategic planning tasks are used. 

Result. The information on documents defining the current regulatory framework for developments aimed at creating long-term forecasts for the development of education, as well as creating concepts and documentation for strategic planning is systematised. 

Scientific novelty. Modern directions of forecasting and strategic planning were identified, which were reflected in the regulatory and legal documentation of recent years. 

Practical significance. The data obtained and systematised in the article can be used by the developers of predictive and planning documents of a strategic nature, as well as members of project teams whose work is related to the formation of forecasts and strategic development plans.

Introduction. In  the previous article we  considered the state of  the supply of  some branches of the economy with middle-level specialists and showed that the shortage of  such specialists can be  eliminated by  insignificant changes in  the structure of  admission to the programmes of training of middle-level specialists. This article discusses in detail the situation with the supply of skilled workers in the ‘Manufacturing Industries’, the problems of determining the basic professions for the industry, and the estimates of the skilled workers shortage with education in basic (profile) for the industry professions, as well as the possibilities and methods of eliminating this shortage. 

Aim. The purpose of this paper is to analyse the compliance of the structure and the ammount of skilled workers trained in the basic groups of professions for the industry, using the example of the ‘Manufacturing industries’ sector. It also aims to estimate the shortage of such personnel and possible ways to reduce it. 

Methods. In order to assess the shortage of skilled workers with training in the basic programmes for industry, the following data were used: сomparison of the share of enrolments in the relevant programmes in the total enrolments in training programmes for skilled workers and those employed in the industry; Rosstat labour demand monitoring, adjusted for the size of the sample surveyed; Forecast calculations of the demand for personnel with different levels of education, distribution of the employed by age and by level of education.

Results. The estimates show that for the FEA “Manufacturing industries” the shortage of skilled workers and specialists with education in programmes 15 and 22 by the beginning of 2023 (taking into account the retirements and graduation of skilled workers in these programmes in 2023) is estimated at 126.8 thousand people, and this is provided that all trained skilled workers in  programmes 15 and 22 start working in  the considered industry. Elimination of the shortage of skilled workers and specialists with education in programmes relevant for the FEA requires 3-5 times increase in the enrollment numbers. After 2028-2030, the shortage of skilled workers and specialists will start to increase due to an increase in the share of retirements. 

Scientific novelty. The lack/surplus of training of skilled workers and specialists with education in programmes 15 ‘Mechanical Engineering’ and 22 ‘Technology of Materials’, which are basic for the type of economic activity ‘Manufacturing Industries’ has been assessed. 

Practical significance. The results of  the study can be  used by  the state and regional authorities in the formation and distribution of control figures of admissions to the training of skilled workers and specialists in specific programmes, as well as in preparing decisions on measures aimed at increasing the conjugation of the structure of personnel training in  the system of  secondary vocational education with the prospective needs of the economy.