кандидат педагогических наук
Научно-исследовательского центра профессионального образования и систем квалификаций ФИРО РАНХиГС, Москва
Introduction. The research topic “Analysis of forecasting methods for development of the system of training qualified workers and middle-level specialists” is devoted to an important theoretical and practical problem of the applicability of the results of predictive research in making managerial decisions.
Aim. To consider the process of forecasting the development of the secondary vocational education in a non-economic context; to identify and clarify the complex of non-economic, yet organisational and pedagogical parameters of the state of the specified system as objects of forecasting.
Methods. A comprehensive analysis of the processes of modernisation of the secondary professional education was carried out using various forms of statistical analysis, modeling, analysis of theoretical approaches, comparative analysis.
Results. Nine main parameters of forecasting the state of secondary professional education system in the process of modernization are identified: priorities in the value-oriented settings; the degree of practice-oriented educational system; variability of educational programs and the educational process; openness of the educational system of a professional educational organization; quality of education; prevailing ways of working with a contingent of students; the depth of digital transformation of the educational process; the level of integration of an educational organization into the socio-economic ecosystem of the region; the success of graduates in their professional activities.
The scientific novelty lies in the proposed set of non-economic, organizational and pedagogical parameters of forecasting the state of secondary vocational education system.
The practical significance of the research results lies in the new ability within management practice to directly assess the impact of modernization efforts on the secondary professional education system, predict forthcoming changes, and strategically plan management interventions within this system.
Introduction. Forecasting and strategic planning of long-term labor needs and the development of secondary vocational education are regulated by the legislation of the Russian Federation. The issues of applying modern forecasting methods require consideration in the context of the requirements of established norms.
Aim. The coverage of the results of the analysis of normative and methodological documents, which define the issues of forecasting and strategic planning of the development of the education system of the Russian Federation.
Methods. The methods of generalizing analysis of the content of normative documents, systematization of relevant legal information in the context of forecasting and strategic planning tasks are used.
Result. The information on documents defining the current regulatory framework for developments aimed at creating long-term forecasts for the development of education, as well as creating concepts and documentation for strategic planning is systematised.
Scientific novelty. Modern directions of forecasting and strategic planning were identified, which were reflected in the regulatory and legal documentation of recent years.
Practical significance. The data obtained and systematised in the article can be used by the developers of predictive and planning documents of a strategic nature, as well as members of project teams whose work is related to the formation of forecasts and strategic development plans.