Introduction. Due to  the imposition of  sanctions and the development of  import substitution at  Russian enterprises, not only is  the nomenclature of  the equipment used changing, but in  many cases the technological processes are also changing. This is  a serious challenge to  adapt to  the new economic conditions by  realigning with compatible equipment and technologies.

Aim: to define the degree of readiness of  Russian educational organisations implementing secondary vocational education programmes to solve the problems of renewal and import substitution, based on the data obtained during an empirical study. 

Methods. Empirical data were collected using an electronic questionnaire form, which included 22 closed questions. The processing of the obtained primary results was carried out on the basis of cluster analysis. 

Results. It has been revealed that vocational education organisations are not adequately prepared to address the issue of updating equipment in the context of the achievement of technological sovereignty by the Russian Federation. The contribution of employers to  the process of  updating equipment in  educational institutions turned out to  be significantly less than expected. The use of  certain management strategies by  an educational organisation has little effect on  the quality of  its material and technical support. The key determinant is its location in a financially prosperous region and access to regional sources of financing. 

Scientific novelty. The nature and degree of  influence of  various factors on  the effectiveness of equipment renewal and import substitution processes in educational organisations implementing secondary vocational education programmes are revealed. The differences in  the created conditions and management strategies used by  educational organisations to  solve logistical problems (diversification of  financing channels, cooperation with employers, import substitution planning, personnel training) are characterised. 

Practical significance. A  set of  conditions and management strategies have been defined to  ensure an  increase in  the efficiency of  equipment renewal and import substitution processes. The current problem areas in the management of material and technical support of the secondary vocational education system are identified.

Introduction. The announced plans of the Ministry of Education to develop a new education strategy by the autumn of 2024 make the problem of forecasting the development of the training system of qualified workers and technicians relevant. 

The aim of this article is to develop a methodology for forecasting the level of readiness of the secondary vocational education system to solve the problem of the qualified personnell provision for the economy. 

Methods. The authors used methods of comparative and general analysis of scientific data on approaches to forecasting and its practices in Russia and abroad, data extrapolation, modeling, theoretical and cluster analysis, synthesis and conceptualisation. 

Results. A strategy for forecasting the development of a system for training qualified workers and technicians is presented, including the types of data and parameters used for forecasting, its stages, and methods of working with data. 

The scientific novelty lies in the substantiation of ways to use big data analytics tools (predictive analytics) to manage the development of the vocational education system. 

The practical significance lies in the proposed set of forecasting tools and algorithms for its use to manage the development of the secondary vocational education system. Among them: predictive analytics tools, data requirements used in the predictive analytics system, forecasting stages and conditions for the effectiveness of its results.